The final poll from a nonpartisan polling company of the 2020 presidential election indicates President Donald Trump will win.
David Burrell, CEO & Co-Founder of Wick Polling indicates its last survey of battleground states shows Trump winning Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina and running even in Biden in Michigan.
“We are predicting that Donald Trump is going to win re-election. In our most recent battleground polls in the 6 states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio he is up by over 2% in all but Michigan,” he explained. “But what’s more interesting than our prediction that he will win, and why we are writing this article, is that all of our polls until last week had Trump losing by similar margins to what you have probably seen in the news.”
Final nonpartisan Wick poll of likely voters.
Trump 50% (+3)
Trump 49% (+2)
Trump 49% (+2)
Trump 49% (+2)
Trump 49% (+2)
— LifeNews.com (@LifeNewsHQ) November 3, 2020
Burrell said the biggest issue with the polls showing a Biden win is Trump voters are not represented fully.
What caused this change? It had little to do with either team’s campaigning because we can still easily conduct a poll that has Biden up by a large margin. Instead, it was our methodology that changed. We still used similar tactics that helped us accurately predict every battleground state in 2016: Nearly the same questionnaire design, random samples of likely and newly registered voters, no live agents, etc… But otherwise, we pretty much threw out the book of traditional assumptions made about data sampling. We decided to question everything as we started our field program.
Why did we throw out the book the week before an election when we had relied on its methods for hundreds of polls? It definitely wasn’t because excited to tell dozens of political consulting and public affairs clients on both sides of the aisle that the work we have all been doing might have a methodology problem. But end-of-the-day, our team has been involved in elections for 12 years, done thousands of polls, built a company that created an opinion research technology that is used by dozens of companies- and something just didn’t look or feel right (which was a good enough reason as any to check our premises). This feeling had been around for a whilebut the final decision came a week or so ago I was trying to listen to a Biden speech on the tv and couldn’t hear him over the sound of Trump supporters honking their horns. I joked that we needed to tally the honks because I have run hundreds of polls this year and this is the first I have heard from this group of voters… That they were the new “hard to reach segment” and this was precious data.
It was just a joke but it really made me start to wonder how much truth there was to it and so we decided to find out. What follows (in addition to the results of the polls shown further down) is our best shot at explaining what we saw when we checked our premises and why everyone got it wrong… again.
Burrell’s firm found Trump supporters were responding to polls at a much lower clip than Biden backers.
In 2016 education was an issue that made polls wrong and most pollsters are trying to adjust (I will add here that if any pollster isn’t controlling for education and/or has grouped graduate and post-graduate degrees together as “college grad or higher” then they will still have a 2016-esque problem with their accuracy). In 2020 education is a symptom rather than the problem itself. Voters with post-graduate degrees historically answer polls at higher response rates than less-educated voters. But that doesn’t explain 23% – 31% of day 1 survey respondents answering that they had a post-graduate degree. Why are “some college” and “no college” segments of the population answering at rates much lower than in 2016?
He also indicate that black and Hispanic support for Trump is increased over 2016.
“The raw responses from the battleground polls data show a nearly 3x increase in African American and 2x increase in Hispanic support for Trump when compared to 2016,” he said. “Trump is going to win a historic percentage of African Americans and Hispanics vote.”
President Trump has a long pro-life record.
October is Down Syndrome Awareness Month, and an estimate 250,000 Americans have the chromosomal abnormality. Some go to college, while others own businesses and work as models, actors and artists. Some get married, and many serve as advocates and spokespeople for people with disabilities.
But even more would be alive today if they had not been discriminatorily aborted — something President Trump condemned in his message today.
“As our society progresses toward a more inclusive future, there are still those who pass judgment on which lives are worth living. As President, I denounce radical proposals to terminate pregnancies of unborn children with Down syndrome,” he said. “Our Nation will continue to emphatically affirm the self-evident ideal that all children—born and unborn—are created in the image of God, are worthy of life, and deserve to be loved.”
“Our country must never run astray from the certitude that the lives of those with Down syndrome are precious and full of potential. During Down Syndrome Awareness Month, we are reminded that we must never waver in our efforts to support these individuals so that they can enrich the soul of our Nation with their joy and love,” he added.
President Trump, the first sitting president in United States history to attend and address the annual March for Life in person, has received wide support from pro-life groups across the county.
In one of his first acts as president, Trump reinstated and expanded the Mexico City Policy, which prohibits taxpayer funding to groups that promote or provide abortions overseas. The change defunded Planned Parenthood’s international arm of about $100 million in U.S. tax dollars.
Trump has repeatedly called out the Democratic Party’s extreme position on abortion. During his State of the Union address Trump slammed the governors of New York and Virginia for promoting abortion up to birth and infanticide. He also called for Congress to pass a ban on late-term abortions on babies who are capable of feeling pain.
Trump and his administration have made a number of changes to protect those who morally object to abortions, expanding conscience protections for medical workers who believe it is wrong to kill an unborn baby and increasing religious exemptions for Obamacare.
His administration also intervened to stop the United Nations from supporting abortion in a resolution about sexual violence. In 2018, under his leadership, the State Department removed references to the so-called “right” to abort an unborn baby from a global human rights report as well.
During his presidency, the administration also finalized a new Title X rule that requires health care entities to completely separate abortion from their taxpayer-funded services. Planned Parenthood, which already has said it will not comply, could lose about $60 million annually through the policy change. However, the abortion group is suing to block the cuts.
Trump has appointed dozens of conservative judges to federal courts as well, including two to the U.S. Supreme Court and he has repeatedly told the UN that he will not promote abortion as a human right.