Guttmacher released data claiming the number of abortions increased between 2020 & 2023. The media is of course promoting this to argue that post-Dobbs pro-life laws have been ineffective There is less here than meet they eye. Here are some talking points.
This new Guttmacher data is based on samples of abortion facilities (not comprehensive surveys). They provide 90% confidence intervals for their abortion esimates In some cases their upper estimate is much higher than their low estimate.
For Georgia their upper estimate is more than 10,000 abortions higher (80% higher) than their low estimate For Florida their upper estimate is more than 11,000 abortions (30% higher) than their low estimate This much variation causes questions about the accuracy of their estimates.
It should be noted that in the U.S. abortions increased by 8 percent between 2017 and 2020 Not all of the blue state increase is due to women from conservative states seeking abortions elsewhere.
Some of the blue state increase is due to: A) The recent trend of increasing abortion rates B) More permissive blue state policies. Medicaid programs in IL, RI, and ME now cover elective abortions C) More permissive FDA rules governing chemical abortions.
The We Count project sponsored by @SocietyFP attempts to count the number of abortions performed (not an estimate) They have consistently found that 10s of thousands of fewer abortions have taken place post-Dobbs.
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Also birth data from Texas shows that the Texas Heartbeat Act saved over 1,000 lives every month. There are large increases in the number of children being born in Texas due the enactment of the Texas Heartbeat Act.
Pro-lifers do not be discouraged Plenty of data shows that the pro-life laws that we have passed since Dobbs are saving lives and doing a great deal of good.
LifeNews Note: Michael J. New is a Research Associate at the Busch School of Business at The Catholic University of America and is an associate scholar at the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_J_New
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